Sources & methodology

euroflation republishes official statistics. Every figure is sourced, every chart is attributed, and we never present a derived number as an official one. Here is exactly where the data comes from.

Eurostat — Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP)

All inflation figures: headline, core, energy, food and services, for each eurozone country and the euro-area aggregate. Datasets prc_hicp_minr (2026+) and prc_hicp_manr (historical).

Update cadence: Monthly — a flash estimate around the 1st and the final release mid-month.

Reuse: © European Union. Reused under the Eurostat copyright notice / CC BY 4.0, with attribution.

European Central Bank — Data Portal

ECB policy rates (deposit facility, main refinancing, marginal lending) and the euro short-term rate (€STR).

Update cadence: Policy rates change only on Governing Council decisions; €STR is daily.

Reuse: Source: ECB. Reused under the ESCB free-reuse policy, with attribution; figures shown unmodified.

ECB meeting calendar

The Governing Council monetary-policy meeting dates that drive the next-decision countdown.

Update cadence: Published annually by the ECB.

Reuse: Source: ECB official calendar.

Polymarket — live crowd odds

The 'live odds' on the ECB page link out to Polymarket's prediction markets. We link to them; we do not fetch, host, or republish their numbers.

Update cadence: Continuous (on Polymarket).

Reuse: Linked only — not republished, per Polymarket's terms.

Flash, final & revisions

Eurostat publishes HICP twice each month: a flash estimate at the very start of the month, then the final release around mid-month, which can revise the flash. We ingest both, and the final value always overwrites the flash for the same month. Earlier months are occasionally revised by Eurostat too — when that happens our figure updates on the next sync, so a number you read here can change to match the source. We never freeze a stale value to look consistent.

How the figures are computed

Headline inflation is the annual rate of change of the HICP — a given month versus the same month a year earlier. Core strips out energy and food; the energy, food and services figures are the corresponding sub-indices, each as an annual rate. The euro-area aggregate is Eurostat's own fixed-composition series (EA21 from 2026, EA20 before), not a figure we average ourselves. Data refreshes once a day from a server-side job; pages are cached and regenerated on each update, so what you see is the latest official release, not a live per-request query.

Derived figures

Where we compute something ourselves — for example month-on-month changes in an annual rate, or a year-ago comparison — it is our calculation from the published source data, clearly framed as such, and never presented as the source's own official figure.

Independence & disclaimer

euroflation is an independent project. It is not affiliated with, or endorsed by, the European Central Bank, Eurostat, or the European Union, and uses no EU or ECB emblem. The data is provided as-is and may be revised by the original source. Nothing on this site is financial advice.